Weekend Observations for 5.4.19

SPX – A couple days ago, I featured these daily SP00s charts with a fast and slow setting on the momentum indicator lines, saying they were both vulnerable to dropping through their respective UTLs…

They did, and yesterday recovered most of the price loss, though their momentum indicator lines created new pivots for their respective UTLs…

It seems likely at this point that these new UTLs will mark, that is, the breaking of these new UTLs, will mark the end of the price rise I’m looking for on this leg of the journey for the SP00s…

The price high I’m looking for next week is up in the ~3040 range, though the momentum indicator line won’t confirm that until after the fact, and that’s assuming the price can even rise that high… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

In my nearly 25-years of being a student and trader in the financial and commodities markets, one of the most important lessons I ever learned has been to NOT be married to my forecast or opinion of what the market should or should not do next…

My forecast from 4.9.16 had to be revised last December, when the SPX dropped much farther than I’d forecast, so it could reset its momentum indicator line long-term trend line and extend this bull market beyond the 2021 time frame I was originally looking for…

 

SPX-W-EW-4-9-16-Alt.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

SPX-W-4-5-19-Actual-1.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link

 

Since then, I forecast the SPX on 1.4.19 to go to new ATHs in months, rather than years (if at all) as so many of the pundits in this game were calling for…

 

SPX-D-1-4-19-1.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link

 

Then on 2.15.19, I revised that forecast, calling for the wave-(x):(iv) high to push upward to the ~3290 range, rather than the ~3040 range, as my 1.4.19 forecast said…

 

SPX-D-2-15-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link

 

The next iteration of my forecast was on 3.29.19, when it became clear to me that the b-wave was going to be of the running variety, so the ~3040 price range came back into focus, but only as an interim high…

 

SPX-D-3-29-19-Alt.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

This last chart is from yesterday’s close, showing the SPX is closing in on that ~3040 target, or the top channel line UTL… it’s now within spitting distance…

 

SPX-D-5-3-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

The point here is to not be married to what you think the market should do, which is at best, an educated GUESS, but learn to be fluid, and flow with the market, as it’s ALWAYS right… watching.

 

BITCOIN – Back in June of 2018, I called for Bitcoin to drop to the ~3000 range, to complete Wave-A:IV of a long-term bear market that would last some 10-20 years…

On 2.9.19, I called the bottom of the first phase of Bitcoin’s bear market, as Wave-A:IV found its completion, and I called for the beginning of Wave-B:IV, which will eventually carry BTC upward to the ~8K range…

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

At this point, BTC is up in the ~6K range, and hitting major resistance, so wave-a may be nearing a completion… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

 

 

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