How Long to Make a Million Dollars in the Stock Market?

Back on 5.21.19, I read an article exploring how long would it take to become a millionaire via the stock market…

 

 

The answer was relative to many factors, including:

  • when did you initially get in…
  • did you get scared and sell at the bottom of corrections…
  • did you finally only get back into the market late in the rally phase…
  • etc, etc, etc….

For the article, they assumed you would buy-and-hold, and also assumed a 7.65 CAGR (compound annual growth rate), and based on those two constants, this is how it would be done:

  • Invest $485K for 10-years
  • Invest $235K for 20-years
  • Invest $115K for 30-years
  • Invest $55K for 40-years
OR

You could have used my SAR momentum-based swing system with the aggressive model for 12-24 months, starting with $50K and risking up to 20% per swing…

Since 1.1.18, my system has generated 80 signals, ten were losers, for a losing rate of 12.5%… those ten losing trades total 49-points per contract, while the seventy winning trades have generated 4300-points per contract, that ratio is 1.1%

The stats for my system since I started posting the signals daily, in pretty much real-time are 73-signals with the same ten losses for a losing rate of 13.7%, and the point ratio rises to 1.4% with 3430-points won and 49-points lost…
Here are the updated spreadsheets for both trading models on my SAR swing system dating back to January 2018 through July 2019… if this intrigues you, and you have $50K to fund an account, DM me!
SAR signals with only one contract risked per swing:
SAR aggressive model with up to 20% equity risked per swing:

Market Observations for 5.1.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the top of the globex range, which is after a successful back test of the DTL off the former ATHs in yesterday’s regular trading session…

At noon MST the FOMC meeting ends, then an announcement on rates, then the release of the minutes… there is likely to be a spike in volatility at that time, then if my fractal interpretation is correct, the SP00s will break higher again, moving towards that ~3040 target range…

The ST, IT and LT trends are upward, and my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.22.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the lows of the globex session, and have printed new session lows this hour…

There’s potential for another diamond formation in this range, and with most earnings reports coming in better than expected, I’d say a shallow-sideways correction is what we’ll see here, then a breakout upward… but as always, the momentum indicator signal line rules the day…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2908… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.17.19

SP00s (from 4.16.19 evening) – I never want to leave the impression that I decide to adjust a trend line on a whim or arbitrarily…

When I run another business besides being a father to seven kiddos who still live at home and everything else that demands my attention, I do not show everything I’m watching at the time I’m making decisions…

Here’s the 60-min SP00s chart, and as you can see, the UTL is fairly flat and has just been broken, so there is a reversal on the 60-min SP00s chart at this time, and if prices don’t turn back upward soon, the 240-min chart is likely to join the reversal downward… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.10.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – good morning and happy Wednesday to all!

The SP00s open the regular trading session about 6-points higher than yesterday’s close, though still in a ST downward trend…

There is a potential for a hook to develop on the momentum indicator line of the 240-min SP00s chart, but it needs at least one more bar to see where this goes, if anywhere…

For now, my SAR swing system remains short from 2895… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.9.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – in last night’s globex session, the momentum indicator line for the 10:00 pm bar on the 240-min SP00s chart was rejected by both top DTLs, and the 2:00 am bar closed beneath both also…

The SP00s open the day beneath two additional UTLs, confirming the rejection from the DTLs overnight…

My SAR swing system reversed back to short from 2895… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 3.27.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – at the 6:00 am bar on the 240-min SP00s chart, the momentum indicator line closed below its UTL, signaling yet another reversal in the ST trend…

You can always count on plenty of price fluctuation at the opening bell for the regular trading session, so I was given a gift with the move upward to the 2829s, so I could get my fills…

I’m not sure what today’s outcome will be, though me thinks this secondary pivot is still a part of the c-wave downward to complete wave-b:(x):(iv)…

Have I mentioned lately that the current market action would frustrate both the bulls and the bears?!?

My SAR swing system reversed to short from 2829… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 3.26.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – last evening during the 6:00 pm bar in the globex session, the momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart closed above its DTL, creating a ST trend change back to upward…

The 6:00 am bar just printed, with the momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart just poking above the top of the gray zone resistance level and approaching a latent DTL…

If wave-c:b:(x):(iv) completed yesterday, the the SP00s will push upward from here…

If not, the it would be in this range on the momentum indicator line signal that the SP00s will turn back downward…

My SAR swing system reversed to long from 2806… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 3.22.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – when one sets out to create a swing trading system, all the considerations in the optimization process are enough to make one’s head spin…

  • Optimize for running markets…
  • Optimize for slow markets…
  • Optimize for churning/choppy markets…

Creating a consistently profitable system that is both robust AND sensitive in ALL market conditions, day-in, day-out, in real time (not some back-tested boolshite) is like unto finding the proverbial needle in the haystack…

I feel I’ve created that one-in-a-billion system that though it’s taken two losses in the past two weeks, they were rather small, and more than made up for by the gains over the same period…

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 3.21.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day in the red, and at the time this capture was taken, they’re just coming off new swing lows…

They’re at pivot price support now, and there’s another just below, at ~2810…

Looking at the momentum indicator line, there’s a UTL combined with the top of the gray zone support level just below, and once those are reached, there’s likely to be a bounce…

 

Continue reading