Market Observations for 5.1.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the top of the globex range, which is after a successful back test of the DTL off the former ATHs in yesterday’s regular trading session…

At noon MST the FOMC meeting ends, then an announcement on rates, then the release of the minutes… there is likely to be a spike in volatility at that time, then if my fractal interpretation is correct, the SP00s will break higher again, moving towards that ~3040 target range…

The ST, IT and LT trends are upward, and my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.22.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the lows of the globex session, and have printed new session lows this hour…

There’s potential for another diamond formation in this range, and with most earnings reports coming in better than expected, I’d say a shallow-sideways correction is what we’ll see here, then a breakout upward… but as always, the momentum indicator signal line rules the day…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2908… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.17.19

SP00s (from 4.16.19 evening) – I never want to leave the impression that I decide to adjust a trend line on a whim or arbitrarily…

When I run another business besides being a father to seven kiddos who still live at home and everything else that demands my attention, I do not show everything I’m watching at the time I’m making decisions…

Here’s the 60-min SP00s chart, and as you can see, the UTL is fairly flat and has just been broken, so there is a reversal on the 60-min SP00s chart at this time, and if prices don’t turn back upward soon, the 240-min chart is likely to join the reversal downward… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.10.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – good morning and happy Wednesday to all!

The SP00s open the regular trading session about 6-points higher than yesterday’s close, though still in a ST downward trend…

There is a potential for a hook to develop on the momentum indicator line of the 240-min SP00s chart, but it needs at least one more bar to see where this goes, if anywhere…

For now, my SAR swing system remains short from 2895… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.9.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – in last night’s globex session, the momentum indicator line for the 10:00 pm bar on the 240-min SP00s chart was rejected by both top DTLs, and the 2:00 am bar closed beneath both also…

The SP00s open the day beneath two additional UTLs, confirming the rejection from the DTLs overnight…

My SAR swing system reversed back to short from 2895… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 3.27.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – at the 6:00 am bar on the 240-min SP00s chart, the momentum indicator line closed below its UTL, signaling yet another reversal in the ST trend…

You can always count on plenty of price fluctuation at the opening bell for the regular trading session, so I was given a gift with the move upward to the 2829s, so I could get my fills…

I’m not sure what today’s outcome will be, though me thinks this secondary pivot is still a part of the c-wave downward to complete wave-b:(x):(iv)…

Have I mentioned lately that the current market action would frustrate both the bulls and the bears?!?

My SAR swing system reversed to short from 2829… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 3.26.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – last evening during the 6:00 pm bar in the globex session, the momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart closed above its DTL, creating a ST trend change back to upward…

The 6:00 am bar just printed, with the momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart just poking above the top of the gray zone resistance level and approaching a latent DTL…

If wave-c:b:(x):(iv) completed yesterday, the the SP00s will push upward from here…

If not, the it would be in this range on the momentum indicator line signal that the SP00s will turn back downward…

My SAR swing system reversed to long from 2806… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 3.22.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – when one sets out to create a swing trading system, all the considerations in the optimization process are enough to make one’s head spin…

  • Optimize for running markets…
  • Optimize for slow markets…
  • Optimize for churning/choppy markets…

Creating a consistently profitable system that is both robust AND sensitive in ALL market conditions, day-in, day-out, in real time (not some back-tested boolshite) is like unto finding the proverbial needle in the haystack…

I feel I’ve created that one-in-a-billion system that though it’s taken two losses in the past two weeks, they were rather small, and more than made up for by the gains over the same period…

 

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Market Comments for 3.21.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day in the red, and at the time this capture was taken, they’re just coming off new swing lows…

They’re at pivot price support now, and there’s another just below, at ~2810…

Looking at the momentum indicator line, there’s a UTL combined with the top of the gray zone support level just below, and once those are reached, there’s likely to be a bounce…

 

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Market Comments for 3.20.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the Vernal Equinox (first day of spring) virtually where they ended the regular trading session yesterday, though they traded lower and higher during the globex session…

Today is also the ending of the first FOMC meeting of the year, and the release of the minutes will follow, so the markets can get a sense of the Fed’s take on the US economy and the direction interest rates at this time…

No rate hike is anticipated, though learning the lean for additional rate hikes this year is key today… expect some volatility just after 2:00 pm EST…

I’m looking for the SP00s to decline to the ~2671 range in five waves, and my SAR swing system remains short from 2842… watching.

 

 

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