Multi-year High in Gold Complete

With this week’s push upward by gold to just above the 1600 range, it appears to me that Wave-B:IV in gold is complete, or nearly so.

The previous bear market in gold lasted for some 21-years, so it seems reasonable that the current bear market in gold will be a derivative of that, and last some 10.5-years, into the 2022 time frame, with a low target in the 950-1000 range… watching.

 

XAU-USD-W-1-10-20.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link

ONE YEAR AGO TODAY

Looking back 12-months from today, the SPX was trading in the low 2500s, after falling from a September 2018 high in the ~2950 range and falling to a December 2018 low in the ~2350 range…

It was also on this day, 1.4.19, 12-months ago that I forecast the US equities markets, even though suffering such a large 3-month decline, would push back upward to new ATHs within months, rather than years, or if at all, as so many of those in the forecasting world were saying – as far as I know, NOBODY was making such a bold claim at that time…

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

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SPX – the Decade Ahead 2020-2030

To think, it was only twelve months ago that the SPX saw an incredible decline of some 600-points, from its peak in the ~2950 range in September 2018 to its lows of ~2350 in late December 2018, and then the SPX pushed back upward to a December 2019 high of ~3250 and closed the year at ~3230.

The December 2018 decline was, as I call it, a momentum reset for the US equities markets, and as such, created a foundation for the next bull market cycle that began in 2009, to continue over the next decade, as I wrote in a recent article: Link 

 

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SPX Monthly Momentum Model Ready For Turn

Below is the SPX monthly chart with my momentum indicator setup…

The monthly model has had only six turns, inclusive of the last bull market cycle completion in 2000:

  • September 2000
  • April 2003
  • November 2007
  • April 2009
  • June 2015
  • March 2016

If my fractal and momentum work is correct, the next turn is approaching as soon as February 2020…

 

SPX-M-12-20-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

I’d like to think this leg down will be similar in time to the first leg down in 2018, about 3-6 months, though Martin Armstrong @armstrongeconomics is concerned the EU and the ECB will not step up to deal with the coming liquidity crisis, thus prolonging this leg down as far out as to 2021… watching.

BTW, this is the model I created for institutional money/asset managers; for more information, DM me.

SPX Nearing Year-end Target from 2.15.19

This article will combine three Instagram posts from Saturday, 11.30.19, into one.

ALWAYS START WITH THE TOP-DOWN VIEW…

I never stress too much over changing my fractal count on the 15-min and 240-min SP00s charts, because as new information is presented in real-time – the financial markets ARE dynamic, NOT static – the count can change to reflect that new information, as long as it’s within the scope of the larger, top-down picture…

 

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PI Doctors Elite Community – 11.10.19

Welcome to this presentation!

I’m Tim Sharp, a father of twelve beautiful kiddos, husband to an incredibly wonderful wifey and I’m presently still in the environmental services industry, where I sell and manage about $1M/year in environmental projects  – asbestos abatement, lead-based paint abatement and mold remediation… oh, and I also created the most robust, yet sensitive swing trading system for trading on the SP500 available today.

This presentation is for you if:

  • You are very teachable…
  • You understand the concept of risk and risk management…
  • Your investment portfolio is under-performing – the average rate of return on the SP500, since its inception in 1923 is about 12.25%, the average mutual fund rate of return is about 8-10%…
  • You have student debt or professional debt you would like to see retired more quickly…
  • You want to retire from the medical profession earlier and begin your “Second Act” (Stephen Pollan)…
  • You have enough discretionary capital to participate, and it’s not “scared” money…
  • You have no problem with paying a small fraction of your success to achieve success…

Link to audio presentation from 11.10.19, it’s about 30-min long:  Audio 

 

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Updated Fractal Count for the SPX Going into Year’s End 2019

AN EPIPHANY MOMENT… (from this morning’s IG post)

I used to be a fairly regular contributor at on a trader’s forum, but as more demands on my time have come, I’ve also had to be more selective in where I give my time, so haven’t contributed there for quite a while, until last Friday….

(Unfortunately, I’ve even had to reduce the number of posts here, as my time has become so much more limited.)

The topic was Elliott Wave, and how frustrating it was to see the hundreds and thousands of interpretations… and I absolutely agree, and that was why I changed to fractal theory, as EW has kind of become a negative term in the technical analysis community…

I shared only one chart, and made the comment that my fractal count really hasn’t changed significantly since my 4.9.16 forecast – then it hit me yesterday morning – if the December low marked a significant change in how much longer the bull market in the US equities markets will continue, then why is my fractal count off the WAVE-FOUR low still the same as before?

 

SPX-D-11-1-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

The December low marked a major inflection point, and a shift in my understanding of bull market/bear market cycles, yet I continued to keep the same fractal count as before that change… perhaps I needed more time to grasp the significance of the shift, perhaps I was being resistant to change (that’s simple human nature), perhaps I was being proud… I don’t know, but yesterday, I spent a lot of time in reflection and meditation on this matter, and decided I needed to address this matter and adjust my fractal count to reflect a fresh bull market cycle that is still in its early stages with another ten years to go….

This is the SPX weekly chart with my revised fractal count, showing the January 2018 high as the completion of Wave-1:FIVE, with Wave-2:FIVE in work since…

When you realize you’re wrong. admit it, fix it, and move on – I was wrong, and there’s still so much more life left in this bull market, though there will be corrections along the way, the next major bear market (2000-2009) is not for another decade.

 

SPX-W-11-1-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

Wave-b:c:(x):(iv) Appears Complete

Link to larger chart:  Link 

Back on 8.6.19, after the wave-a:c:(x):(iv) had completed its move upward, just short of the ~3040 range I had forecast on 1.4.19, I commented on how quickly the price range for wave-b:c:(x):(iv) had been reached, and warned not to look to high too early, as the fractal did not have the correct symmetry, and there was probably another leg down to the ~2850 range still ahead:  Link

 

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