SPX – the Decade Ahead 2020-2030

To think, it was only twelve months ago that the SPX saw an incredible decline of some 600-points, from its peak in the ~2950 range in September 2018 to its lows of ~2350 in late December 2018, and then the SPX pushed back upward to a December 2019 high of ~3250 and closed the year at ~3230.

The December 2018 decline was, as I call it, a momentum reset for the US equities markets, and as such, created a foundation for the next bull market cycle that began in 2009, to continue over the next decade, as I wrote in a recent article: Link 

 

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CYCLES ON CYCLES ON CYCLES…

In fractal theory, AKA Elliott Wave Theory, a few things that trips folks up the most is not understanding that the magnitude of the present fractal matters a great deal…

The next thing to understand is that there are also other cycles in play that interact with the fractal cycle…

And what hardly anyone plugs into the equation is Martin Armstrong’s @armstrongeconomics ECM cycle…

 

 

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SPX Monthly Momentum Model Ready For Turn

Below is the SPX monthly chart with my momentum indicator setup…

The monthly model has had only six turns, inclusive of the last bull market cycle completion in 2000:

  • September 2000
  • April 2003
  • November 2007
  • April 2009
  • June 2015
  • March 2016

If my fractal and momentum work is correct, the next turn is approaching as soon as February 2020…

 

SPX-M-12-20-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

I’d like to think this leg down will be similar in time to the first leg down in 2018, about 3-6 months, though Martin Armstrong @armstrongeconomics is concerned the EU and the ECB will not step up to deal with the coming liquidity crisis, thus prolonging this leg down as far out as to 2021… watching.

BTW, this is the model I created for institutional money/asset managers; for more information, DM me.

Nailed the IT Top!

I recently warned that the SPX, via the SP00s was near an intermediate: Link

The Fed’s decision to cut the prime lending rate by only 1/4-point, and not see additional rate cuts this year, AND the President’s adding additional tariffs to China’s imports, was enough to send the US equities markets into a sell-off, which will mark an IT top, probably until September or so.

Here’s the daily SPX chart with the forecast for this top that I published on 1.4.9:

 

SPX-D-1-4-19-1-1.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

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SAR Momentum Trend Swing System Update

From Friday’s (7.19.19) closing remarks:

SP00s – the SP00s end the day closing strongly lower, the reason cited is possible military tensions over Iran (seizing a British oil tanker)…

I mentioned at the 10:00 am update, that though the momentum indicator line had hooked downward on the 240-min SP00s chart at the zero resistance level and where there was also a latent UTL, that that alone was not enough for a reversal (it’s rather typical), but in watching the momentum indicator line on the 60-min chart, it just kept dropping lower and lower – creating lower and lower hooks – and finally it broke another UTL on the momentum indicator line AND the zero support level AND a UTL on the price bars, thus creating a reversal back to short at 2994…

 

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How Long to Make a Million Dollars in the Stock Market?

Back on 5.21.19, I read an article exploring how long would it take to become a millionaire via the stock market…

 

 

The answer was relative to many factors, including:

  • when did you initially get in…
  • did you get scared and sell at the bottom of corrections…
  • did you finally only get back into the market late in the rally phase…
  • etc, etc, etc….

 

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Market Observations for 5.1.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the top of the globex range, which is after a successful back test of the DTL off the former ATHs in yesterday’s regular trading session…

At noon MST the FOMC meeting ends, then an announcement on rates, then the release of the minutes… there is likely to be a spike in volatility at that time, then if my fractal interpretation is correct, the SP00s will break higher again, moving towards that ~3040 target range…

The ST, IT and LT trends are upward, and my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.22.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the lows of the globex session, and have printed new session lows this hour…

There’s potential for another diamond formation in this range, and with most earnings reports coming in better than expected, I’d say a shallow-sideways correction is what we’ll see here, then a breakout upward… but as always, the momentum indicator signal line rules the day…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2908… watching.

 

 

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