GOING BACK TO THE 2.15.19 MODEL

In December 2018, when the SPX fell downward out of the corrective channel that I anticipated it would follow (above), dropping to the ~2350 range, I realized, when my alternate lower target was hit to within 3.5-points on three waves down, that a more complex fractal, a double zig zag corrective fractal structure was developing instead, and on 1.4.19, forecast the SPX to rise to new ATHs within months.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

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MARKET BREADTH UPDATE

Yesterday, I posted a chart of the NYA 1-year cumulative advance/decline line, showing that though the Dow, SPX and NDX had all rallied to new ATHs, the 1-year cumulative A/D line was not confirming the new highs, nor a continuation of the price advance at this moment, though I was open to seeing how this played out over the next few days, to see if the breadth improved to validate new highs in the broader US equities markets.  Link to IG post: Link

 

Later in the day, I receive a note on one of the social media platforms to inform me that I was mistaken, and that because the NYA had not pushed to a new price high, and its 1-year cumulative A/D line did not either, there was no technical failure.

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CYCLES ON CYCLES ON CYCLES…

In fractal theory, AKA Elliott Wave Theory, a few things that trips folks up the most is not understanding that the magnitude of the present fractal matters a great deal…

The next thing to understand is that there are also other cycles in play that interact with the fractal cycle…

And what hardly anyone plugs into the equation is Martin Armstrong’s @armstrongeconomics ECM cycle…

 

 

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SAR Momentum Swing System Update

My SAR momentum swing system triggered its twenty first signal for the year today, reversing from long at 2743.50, to short at 2795.

If my fractal interpretation is correct, the SP00s could fall to about the ~2700 range next week, to complete wave-c:iv, then begin the wave-v:5:V move upward to the ~3600 or ~5100 range.

If I’m mistaken, and wave-c:iv is already complete, then there will be a move higher, without another 80-point decline.  Either way, a very large RH&S formation is in the works, with the right shoulder completing now, that will target new ATHs.

 

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