GOING BACK TO THE 2.15.19 MODEL

In December 2018, when the SPX fell downward out of the corrective channel that I anticipated it would follow (above), dropping to the ~2350 range, I realized, when my alternate lower target was hit to within 3.5-points on three waves down, that a more complex fractal, a double zig zag corrective fractal structure was developing instead, and on 1.4.19, forecast the SPX to rise to new ATHs within months.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

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MARKET BREADTH UPDATE

Yesterday, I posted a chart of the NYA 1-year cumulative advance/decline line, showing that though the Dow, SPX and NDX had all rallied to new ATHs, the 1-year cumulative A/D line was not confirming the new highs, nor a continuation of the price advance at this moment, though I was open to seeing how this played out over the next few days, to see if the breadth improved to validate new highs in the broader US equities markets.  Link to IG post: Link

 

Later in the day, I receive a note on one of the social media platforms to inform me that I was mistaken, and that because the NYA had not pushed to a new price high, and its 1-year cumulative A/D line did not either, there was no technical failure.

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FRACTAL SYMMETRY

PART I – BASIC SYMMETRY

I mentioned in an earlier Instagram post that I would go back to one of the eleven points – that fractal balance had been achieved.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you’ve heard me time and again mention that though a price objective had been reached, the time objective was not complete, so price would not move until then.

While there have been many minor balance/symmetry inflection points along the way, here’s a look at the SPX daily chart with the three major balances that most caught my attention:

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

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Multi-year High in Gold Complete

With this week’s push upward by gold to just above the 1600 range, it appears to me that Wave-B:IV in gold is complete, or nearly so.

The previous bear market in gold lasted for some 21-years, so it seems reasonable that the current bear market in gold will be a derivative of that, and last some 10.5-years, into the 2022 time frame, with a low target in the 950-1000 range… watching.

 

XAU-USD-W-1-10-20.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link