Market Comments for 4.22.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the lows of the globex session, and have printed new session lows this hour…

There’s potential for another diamond formation in this range, and with most earnings reports coming in better than expected, I’d say a shallow-sideways correction is what we’ll see here, then a breakout upward… but as always, the momentum indicator signal line rules the day…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2908… watching.

 

 

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Weekend Observations for 4.21.19

SPX – This is the SPX weekly chart with my revised forecast through 2020…

And though the SPX will go to new ATHs later this year, this is a reminder that corrections take many forms…

The last larger correction was a simple A-B-C corrective flat (3-3-5) lasting from 2000-2009 – the SPX went higher in Wave-B versus its Wave-THREE high in 2000, though Wave-C ended up lower than Wave-A…

This corrective wave will be shorter in duration – 2018-2020, and not a simple flat, but a double zig-zag [a-b-(w)-(x)-(y)] -(3-3-3-3-3), and the low of the correction is already in…

 

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Weekend Observations for 4.19-20.19

Here’s the daily SPX since the 2016 lows, and projecting out to later this year with the wave-(x):(iv) high, up in the ~3290 range…

Note how the last DTL on the momentum indicator line was broken to the upside last week…

Once this corrective phase completes next week, new ATHs will follow, and then a push upward to the top channel line UTL, which should also be in the ~3040 range…

Once there, a pullback to complete wave-b:(x):(iv), down to the ~2870 range, then a new push to yet new ATHs to the ~3290 range in late fall… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

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Market Comments for 4.18.19

SP00s (4.17.19 evening) – Here’s how the 60-min SP00s chart ended the day…

Note how much earlier it generated the reversal signal – at the 8:00 am bar, versus the 10:00 am bar for the 240-min SP00s chart…

I suspect the momentum indicator line will work its way down to the zero support level to reset, so price can then move back upward to new ATHs… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.17.19

SP00s (from 4.16.19 evening) – I never want to leave the impression that I decide to adjust a trend line on a whim or arbitrarily…

When I run another business besides being a father to seven kiddos who still live at home and everything else that demands my attention, I do not show everything I’m watching at the time I’m making decisions…

Here’s the 60-min SP00s chart, and as you can see, the UTL is fairly flat and has just been broken, so there is a reversal on the 60-min SP00s chart at this time, and if prices don’t turn back upward soon, the 240-min chart is likely to join the reversal downward… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.16.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day with most of their gains from the globex session…

As I said yesterday at about 11:00 am MST, that though the momentum indicator line had dropped through its UTL, it would likely hook back above by the 2:00 pm bar, and it did…

The ST trend is up for now, though the SP00s seem a bit toppy and negative divergence of price versus momentum is beginning to show on the 240-min SP00s chart…

My SAR swing system remains long from 2897… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.15.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s 240-min price bars start the day with a potential bullish flag/pennant formation that targets the high 2930s…

The momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart paused at the lower of the two highest DTLs, which is to be expected, so now it is moving between two DTLs and two UTLs, and methinks the breakout will be upward again, as new ATHs beckon…

My SAR swing system remains long from 2897… watching.

 

 

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Weekend Observations for 4.13.19

Here’s an update of the daily SPX with my fractal count as of Friday’s close…

Please don’t get too enamored with the fractal count… fractals are fluid, adapting to real-life events and situations, so we must also adapt along with it – this is a variation of the last fractal count I offered for the daily SPX…

Last weekend is a case in point, I thought it was possible that wave-iiii:c:a:(x):(iv) was already underway, yet the SP00s did not actually break through the 2900 range until yesterday…

For now and over the next couple of weeks, earnings should help propel the SP00s upward to and through the former ATHs, in the ~2940s range, then a pullback to the same, then the final push upward to the ~3040 range to complete wave-a:(x):(iv)… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

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