SPX Approaching Temporary Top…

Hi all,

I’ve been away from the blog for about 60-days now, due to being too damned busy to include it into my daily routine.  There were holidays, graduations, my kiddos coming from around the US to visit (I still have seven kiddos who live with me), the busy season in the environmental services industry (I estimate, sell and manage about $1M per year in asbestos abatement, lead-based paint abatement and mold remediation services).

That said, I hope to catch-up on posting the daily postings I put on Instagram over the next week or so, but want to start off with this short article on the SPX, as I think it’s approaching a temporary top:

With the SPX approaching an intermediate target I’ve had on my radar for a long time, I thought to show how this has played out since 1.4.19, when I first forecast the SPX to recover to new ATHs within months, rather than the years (if at all) that many were looking for in our community…

 

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Weekend Observations for 5.4.19

SPX – A couple days ago, I featured these daily SP00s charts with a fast and slow setting on the momentum indicator lines, saying they were both vulnerable to dropping through their respective UTLs…

They did, and yesterday recovered most of the price loss, though their momentum indicator lines created new pivots for their respective UTLs…

It seems likely at this point that these new UTLs will mark, that is, the breaking of these new UTLs, will mark the end of the price rise I’m looking for on this leg of the journey for the SP00s…

The price high I’m looking for next week is up in the ~3040 range, though the momentum indicator line won’t confirm that until after the fact, and that’s assuming the price can even rise that high… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

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Market Observations for 4.30.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day with slight gains, though off the highs of yesterday…

Today is the beginning of the FOMC meeting that will conclude on Wednesday, so we may see a stall in this range, then a spike in volatility Wednesday, with a breakout one direction or the other – me thinks it will me be upward, with that last target of ~3040 in its sights…

For now, the ST trend remains upward – note I moved the UTL to give the SP00s a little more room to work (that’s always subject to market conditions)- my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

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Weekend Observations for 4.21.19

SPX – This is the SPX weekly chart with my revised forecast through 2020…

And though the SPX will go to new ATHs later this year, this is a reminder that corrections take many forms…

The last larger correction was a simple A-B-C corrective flat (3-3-5) lasting from 2000-2009 – the SPX went higher in Wave-B versus its Wave-THREE high in 2000, though Wave-C ended up lower than Wave-A…

This corrective wave will be shorter in duration – 2018-2020, and not a simple flat, but a double zig-zag [a-b-(w)-(x)-(y)] -(3-3-3-3-3), and the low of the correction is already in…

 

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Market Comments 4.5.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day at new swing highs… a new swing high was achieved earlier in the globex session, at about 2:00 am, so it seemed fairly certain to me that the employment numbers release a few minutes ago would be enough to push the SP00s back higher…

My price target above is the ~2900 range, then the ~2940s….

My SAR swing system remains long from 2818… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.2.19

BITCOIN (from midnight last night) – as soon as I read this article earlier this afternoon, I knew it would become the fuel for a helluva rally…

I’ll look at BTC more closely tomorrow, though have been on record for weeks that Wave-A was probably complete, and Wave-B was in progress…

However, my LT outlook remains the same… crypto remains in a LT bear market; be careful about getting too much hope in this quick short-covering move…

 

 

 

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Market Comments for 3.22.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – when one sets out to create a swing trading system, all the considerations in the optimization process are enough to make one’s head spin…

  • Optimize for running markets…
  • Optimize for slow markets…
  • Optimize for churning/choppy markets…

Creating a consistently profitable system that is both robust AND sensitive in ALL market conditions, day-in, day-out, in real time (not some back-tested boolshite) is like unto finding the proverbial needle in the haystack…

I feel I’ve created that one-in-a-billion system that though it’s taken two losses in the past two weeks, they were rather small, and more than made up for by the gains over the same period…

 

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