SPX Approaching Temporary Top…

Hi all,

I’ve been away from the blog for about 60-days now, due to being too damned busy to include it into my daily routine.  There were holidays, graduations, my kiddos coming from around the US to visit (I still have seven kiddos who live with me), the busy season in the environmental services industry (I estimate, sell and manage about $1M per year in asbestos abatement, lead-based paint abatement and mold remediation services).

That said, I hope to catch-up on posting the daily postings I put on Instagram over the next week or so, but want to start off with this short article on the SPX, as I think it’s approaching a temporary top:

With the SPX approaching an intermediate target I’ve had on my radar for a long time, I thought to show how this has played out since 1.4.19, when I first forecast the SPX to recover to new ATHs within months, rather than the years (if at all) that many were looking for in our community…

 

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Weekend Observations for 5.4.19

SPX – A couple days ago, I featured these daily SP00s charts with a fast and slow setting on the momentum indicator lines, saying they were both vulnerable to dropping through their respective UTLs…

They did, and yesterday recovered most of the price loss, though their momentum indicator lines created new pivots for their respective UTLs…

It seems likely at this point that these new UTLs will mark, that is, the breaking of these new UTLs, will mark the end of the price rise I’m looking for on this leg of the journey for the SP00s…

The price high I’m looking for next week is up in the ~3040 range, though the momentum indicator line won’t confirm that until after the fact, and that’s assuming the price can even rise that high… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

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Market Observations for 4.30.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day with slight gains, though off the highs of yesterday…

Today is the beginning of the FOMC meeting that will conclude on Wednesday, so we may see a stall in this range, then a spike in volatility Wednesday, with a breakout one direction or the other – me thinks it will me be upward, with that last target of ~3040 in its sights…

For now, the ST trend remains upward – note I moved the UTL to give the SP00s a little more room to work (that’s always subject to market conditions)- my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

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Weekend Observations for 4.7.19

SPX – Yesterday I published the expanded view of this chart, the SPX weekly with my forecast out some 10-years…

This view focuses only on the completion of wave-(iv)…

With the recent alert from @armstrongeconomics that there may be a European liquidity panic in May, AND the continued upward move in the price of the SPX, it caused me to modify the fractal so that wave-b:(x):(iv) becomes a running b-wave, a bit like what happened last year…

 

 

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Market Comments 4.5.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day at new swing highs… a new swing high was achieved earlier in the globex session, at about 2:00 am, so it seemed fairly certain to me that the employment numbers release a few minutes ago would be enough to push the SP00s back higher…

My price target above is the ~2900 range, then the ~2940s….

My SAR swing system remains long from 2818… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.2.19

BITCOIN (from midnight last night) – as soon as I read this article earlier this afternoon, I knew it would become the fuel for a helluva rally…

I’ll look at BTC more closely tomorrow, though have been on record for weeks that Wave-A was probably complete, and Wave-B was in progress…

However, my LT outlook remains the same… crypto remains in a LT bear market; be careful about getting too much hope in this quick short-covering move…

 

 

 

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Holiday Comments for 2.18.19

SP00s – The US cash markets (regular trading session) are closed today for the President’s Day holiday…

The SP00s (front month futures contract for the underlying SPX index) are essentially the same as when I posted last evening, and I don’t see much of any change today, unless a breakthrough in the China trade negotiations takes place…

The trend remains upward and my SAR swing system remains long from 2745… watching.

 

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Bitcoin – One of the Greatest Asset Bubbles of All Time

Since I started covering BTC, I’ve been warning that it was an asset that became a bubble, and as all assets that go parabolic in price, they crash and remain in a prolonged bear market for some 10-20 years – and I was looking for the first leg down to be between $4K-$6K, which is now adjusted to about $3K.

Bloomberg Business @bloombergbusiness  posted an infographic this week depicting just how big the BTC bubble was relative to other bubbles in history:

  • The Mississippi Bubble – 1718-1720
  • The Tulip Mania Bubble – 1636-1637
  • The South Sea Bubble – 1711-1720
  • The Dot Com Bubble – 1990-2000

 

 

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