SPX Nearing Year-end Target from 2.15.19

This article will combine three Instagram posts from Saturday, 11.30.19, into one.

ALWAYS START WITH THE TOP-DOWN VIEW…

I never stress too much over changing my fractal count on the 15-min and 240-min SP00s charts, because as new information is presented in real-time – the financial markets ARE dynamic, NOT static – the count can change to reflect that new information, as long as it’s within the scope of the larger, top-down picture…

 

 

On 2.15.19, I revised my forecast from 1.4.19, for the SPX to not only push upward to new ATHs, but to continue upward into year’s end with a target of ~3290…

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

Please note on the first SPX monthly chart below, the intersection of the UTL off the 1987 high to the 2000 highs and the horizontal mark at ~3290 is in December/January – it’s here upon us now…

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

The price bar is already above the upper Bollinger Band, though with the new month starting next week, the upper band will push upward a bit, though I suggest with the late December, early January price push, it will push upward through that upper band again…

Note also the momentum indicator line is moving upward into its lower DTL… with another ~150-points of price movement higher, it may actually push upward to the higher DTL into January 2020, then reverse, for Wave-(y):2 back down to the top of the gray zone support area, or even a bit lower, depending on the speed of the drop…

Next year will be a tough year in the US equities markets, but when you take the TOP-DOWN APPROACH, you’ll understand the corrective action is only the completion of a larger corrective fractal structure, and the bull market cycle is still in tact, so don’t worry about it, but PROFIT from it…

My SAR momentum trend swing system can help you beat the markets in up or down cycles, to learn more, email me, and let’s see if there’s a fit!

 

A TALE OF TWO CHARTS…

Earlier today I posted the SPX monthly chart in its linear scale, showing that the target I forecast back on 2.15.19, of ~3290, is where the UTL running from the 1987 high through the highs in 2000 is in this December/January time frame…

This chart is also the SPX monthly, but with the log-scale setting, and it shows another perspective that needs to be understood…

 

Link to larger chart: Link 

 

The price rise in this scale is only halfway up in its present channel, and the top channel line is the upward target for the end of this bull market cycle…

In other words, in one scale, a minor top in a much larger trend cycle is approaching, but as I said in the earlier post, it’s not a terminal rise, but rather, next year’s drop will be the competition of a larger corrective fractal within a much larger bullish cycle that runs out to ~2032… watching.

 

WE MOSTLY NEVER THING BIG ENOUGH…

Back in February 2019, when I revised my forecast for the SPX to continue upward into year’s end, I also speculated on possible bull market highs out into ~2032…

The two charts just below have those projections, which included: ~5071, ~6539, ~8007 and ~8808, which were projections based on Fibonacci extensions…

 

Link to larger chart: Link

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

I later published another chart that used the multiplier based on the previous bull market cycle, and that projection suggested a bull market cycle high up in the ~15,500 range for the SPX…

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

This next chart below uses the same log-scale SPX monthly chart as I published earlier today, except with this chart, I attempt to extrapolate a bull market cycle high using the channel and my anticipated cycle completion in the ~2032 time frame…

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

As you can see, that target seems to align more with the earlier chart I published using the multiplier estimate, and the earlier Fibonacci extensions all seem much too low, and in fact, the highest Fibonacci extension of ~8808 appears to be a fine point for the wave-3 high…

To be sure, in a major blow off move higher, the price may indeed push upward to that earlier ~15,500 level, or even higher, pushing through the top channel UTL on this chart… watching.

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