Market Comments for 4.2.19

BITCOIN (from midnight last night) – as soon as I read this article earlier this afternoon, I knew it would become the fuel for a helluva rally…

I’ll look at BTC more closely tomorrow, though have been on record for weeks that Wave-A was probably complete, and Wave-B was in progress…

However, my LT outlook remains the same… crypto remains in a LT bear market; be careful about getting too much hope in this quick short-covering move…

 

 

 

 

 

 

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day about where they ended yesterday…

From a price perspective, the SP00s are in a range of pivot resistance that ranges from about ~2880 – ~2900…

And as you can see on this 300-min SP00s chart the momentum indicator line is also moving upward into the final DTL, so sideways or even a pull back in this range is likely…

My SAR swing system remains long from 2818… watching.

 

 

SP00s – At about the halfway point on the current 300-min SP00s bar, the SP00s are doing about what I said – moving sideways to down…

Note how the resistance line I drew in off the ~2880 pivot low from the first week of October 2018 is keeping a lid on upward price movement for now…

If I were guessing, I’d say it’s likely the SP00s move upward to the 2900 range, where the momentum indicator line also hits that final DTL, then another pause/pullback will take place… watching.

 

 

SP00s- 30-minutes into the new 300-min SP00s bar, the SP00s are off the lows and near their opening price of the day…

It may be about now.and into the close that they elect to move upward towards the 2900 range… watching.

 

 

SP00s (post-closing comments) – the SP00s ended the regular trading session in the range established at the start if the trading session…

Here’s a look at the daily SP00s chart with the momentum indicator signal set to the slowest setting…

The momentum indicator line is just below the last DTL, like with the 300-min SP00s chart, suggesting when the move upward to ~2900 takes place, the price will pause again…

My SAR swing system remains long from 2818… watching.

 

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

SPX – I am continually in awe of my own work and the level of intuition I’ve developed about what SHOULD play out, even when I cannot see HOW it will play out…

This is yesterday’s SPX weekly chart with my bull/bear filter beneath (today’s chart was virtually the same, and I never got around to posting this yesterday, so why not)…

I said many weeks ago, that the confluence of TLs above the momentum indicator line would act like a magnet to draw the momentum indicator line upward to that zone…

As price stalled in the ~2800 range, I began to wonder whether it would make it before a leg down took place first…

BOOM… the momentum indicator line has pushed upward through that confluence of TLs above and its next target is the major DTL at the very top… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

BITCOIN (the follow-up, as promised) – back on 2.9.19, I published the first chart below with my primary fractal count, saying it was likely that Wave-A of the BTC bear market was complete (though as always with fractals, you keep both options open), and that BTC was heading higher in a bear market counter-trend Wave-B over the next several years…

I mentioned last night with the article that the $80M in a parked sell order would make for a strong upward thrust, and again find myself amazed with the beauty and order of fractals…

Look at where yesterday’s thrust halted… at the upper channel line DTL that I’ve been featuring since December of last year… such beauty, such elegance…

Look also at the height of the momentum indicator line – the hallmark of the beginning of a new upward trend…

Wave-B will last for many years, but the potential remains good for the price to rise to eventually the $8K – $10K range… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

 

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