Market Comments for 4.11.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day still looking for ST direction…

With the price compression and rising wedge, it may break upward later today, though at this time, the ST trend is still downward…

At the time of this post, my SAR swing system remains short from 2895… watching.

 

 

 

 

SP00s – At the 10:00 am bar for the 60-min and 240-min SP00s charts, we may have been shown the direction for the remainder of the day, as the SP00s suddenly dropped about 10-points in just a few minutes between 9:30-9:45 am…

The price bars on the 60-min SP00s chart shows that only one UTL was broken, though the momentum indicator line tells another story, with the DTL and top of the gray zone resistance level rejecting a move higher twice…

The momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart was also rejected by the DTL twice and by the underside of the most current UTL…

I’m still looking for the momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart to pull back potentially to the top of the gray zone support level, as a reset to allow it to push upward to the next price resistance range at the 2940s… watching.

 

 

 

SP00s (post-closing comments) – have I mentioned anytime recently that both bulls and bears would become frustrated in the current trading environment?

Trading environments like now are a huge part of the reason I stopped leaning on TA for trading, and created a “mechanicalistic” swing trading system – trying to stay on top of all the potential fractal counts at times like this would drive anyone insane…

The first chart shows the 60-min SP00s chart with inverted patterns of expanding and contracting triangles against a flat base. The previous time it broke upward, opposite the flat base…

The second two charts are the 60-min and 240-min SP00s charts… and if you look closely, while the SP00s recovered most of the earlier losses during the regular trading session, neither of the momentum indicator lines were able to recover to break upward through their respective DTLs…

This is an interesting situation I’ve not seen take place before, and I cannot see any new rule or flexibility of an old rule to apply here, so with that, my SAR swing system remains short from 2895… watching.

 

 

 

 

BITCOIN – I began featuring Bitcoin in May/June 2018…

At that time I was warning of a prolonged bear market in BTC, as is always the case for assets that go parabolic in price as was the case with BTC…

I took a lot of grief and hate from those who call themselves HODLs, many of whom who told me that BTC would be back at new ATHs by the end of 2018…

They cited how BTC had gone parabolic in previous times in its price history, and while there may have been a parabolic rise in price in relative terms, BTC became the largest of the five largest asset bubbles in western history in its last parabolic rise to near the $20K price range…

What ALWAYS follows such an event is a bubble burst AND a bear market that lasts some 10-20 years… and in June of 2018, I warned that BTC would continue dropping towards an IT low of about ~3K…

Again, I was ridiculed for this forecast, but alas, I also called the end of the first segment of the BTC correction in real-time on 2.9.19, after BTC hit a low of about ~3200 in December 2018…

A few days ago, I said BTC needed to make one more high to complete its first wave upward… it appears that has happened, and now BTC has fallen back to the top of the channel line DTL…

This drop could pull back to the ~4000 range, though the IT trend is still upward and should take the price upward to the ~7500 range over the next year or two… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

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