Market Comments for 4.10.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – good morning and happy Wednesday to all!

The SP00s open the regular trading session about 6-points higher than yesterday’s close, though still in a ST downward trend…

There is a potential for a hook to develop on the momentum indicator line of the 240-min SP00s chart, but it needs at least one more bar to see where this goes, if anywhere…

For now, my SAR swing system remains short from 2895… watching.

 

 

 

SP00s – 30-minutes into the regular trading session, the hook on the momentum indicator line that I mentioned earlier is developing, though it will take until the 10:00 am bar for it to set… watching.

 

 

SP00s – At the 10:00 am bar for the 240-min SP00s chart, we find the SP00s still above yesterday’s close, but not yet ready to make a breakout higher or lower…

This is the signal line only – the momentum indicator line – on the 240-min SP00s chart, showing potential for a hook higher, yet also showing the potential to continue lower to the next lower UTL and the top of the gray zone support level… watching.

 

 

SP00s – As of noon Denver time, the jury is still out with regard to whether a breakout upward or downward is most likely…

The Fed Minutes revealed there was not likely to be any change in rates for the remainder of 2019… perhaps they were looking for a drop later this year?

No change in ST trend as of yet… watching.

 

 

ROTATION VS CORRECTION – with the market action over the past week or so, it’s interesting to note that the NASDAQ futures are pushing upward to new swing highs…

The SP00s are getting very close to new swing highs, while the Dow futures are actually not far off their recent lows…

Corrective markets sell downward in unison (small caps sometimes are the exception), while rotating markets just need some time to work-off a state of being over-bought…

Make no mistake, the IT trend is still upward… new ATHs are just ahead for all three of these indices… watching.

 

 

 

 

SP00s (post-closing comments) – those of you who’ve followed my work and SAR swing system for a while know that the momentum indicator signal line on the 240-min SP00s chart is the main signal line, but it is not independent of the momentum indicator signal line 60-min SP00s chart…

This was not always the case… when I started publishing my SAR signals in real-time back in May 2018, only the 240-min SP00s chart was used…

Then as the August/September time frame arrived, and the choppiness that came with a topping process, I became frustrated with some whipsaw signals that were being generated, so added the signal line from the 60-min SP00s chart also, as a filter of sorts…

While this move didn’t eliminate ALL whipsaws or losing signals, it did help eliminate many potential whipsaws and losings signals…

It seemed today was going to produce a SAR reversal, as the SP00s rallied into the afternoon, but the momentum indicator line on the 60-min chart was moving upward into its DTL and the top of the gray zone resistance level…

Additionally, the momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart was not showing conviction, as it was essentially crawling up on an UTL, which it did about a month ago, though this time, it was showing decent negative divergence of price versus momentum, and was relatively high (above the top of the gray zone)… and in need of coming down more for a reset…

As the evening progressed, the momentum indicator line on the 60-min SP00s chart was rejected by the DTL and the top of the gray zone resistance level, and the momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart has also hooked…

At this point, both would need to push up through their respective DTLs to create a reversal signal…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2895… watching.

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *