January 2019 SPX – One of the Best EVER

SPX – did you realize that January 2019 was one of the best gaining months ever for the SPX, and only one of eighteen times since 1939 that the SPX closed more than 9% higher for the month?

And from a point-perspective, the SPX has never seen a ~237 point gain in a single month (I computed the gain from where the month opened, with a gap-down from the December close)…

Of the 17 previous times there has been a gain of over 9% in a single month for the SPX, only five times did it end the year negative, and one of those times, 1939, it happened twice in that year (-.92% for the year)… the worst instance was in 2000 where the SPX ended -9.09% for the year…

 

 

Because this is such a rare occurrence – only 18-times in 960-months, this is what the complete list since 1939 looks like:

  • 7/1939 – 11.33% gain & <-.92%> gain for the year…
  • 9/1939 – 16.85% gain & <-.92%> gain for the year…
  • 4/1945 – 9.2% gain & 36.45 % gain for the year…
  • 11/1962 – 10.47% gain & <-8.8 %> gain for the year…
  • 10/1974 – 16.81% gain & 26.48 % gain for the year…
  • **1/1975 – 12.72% gain, & 37.22% gain for the year…
  • **1/1976 – 12.17% gain & 23.92% gain for the year…
  • 4/1978 – 9.02% gain & 6.56% gain for the year…
  • 11/1980 – 10.65% gain & 32.49% gain for the year…
  • 8/1982 – 12.14% gain & 21.55% gain for the year…
  • 10/1982 – 11.51% gain & 21.55 gain for the year…
  • 8/1984 – 11.04% gain & 6.25% gain for the year…
  • **1/1987 – 13.47% gain & 5.26% gain for the year…
  • 7/1989 – 9.03% gain & 31.68% gain for the year…
  • 5/1990 – 9.75% gain & <-3.1%> gain for the year…
  • 3/2000 – 9.78% gain & <-9.09%> gain for the year…
  • 4/2009 – 9.57% gain & 26.45% gain for the year…
  • **1/2019 – 9.58% gain…

Of the previous three times there was a January that gained more than 9%, 1975, 1976, and 1987, NONE of those years saw a negative return for the SPX, and the smallest gain for the year was 5.26%, in 1987…

I don’t pretend to KNOW how this year will play out, but it appears the odds are in favor of a positive gain on the year…

I am looking for a double zig-zag expanding diagonal correction that will bring the SPX back down to the ~2100 range, so depending on if and when that comes to fruition, will factor into whether this trend of a positive gain on the year with at least a 9% gain in January continues…

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

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