Weekend Observations for 4.28.19

SPX – This chart is one I developed many years ago – it’s the weekly SPX with my bull/bear filter on it…

I made the case yesterday that statistically, the financial markets spend 2-3 times as long in a bullish trend, as they do in a bearish trend…

This chart shows about the past 20-years of the SPX… notice how much of that time the momentum indicator line is spent up in the gray bubble zone…

The momentum indicator line continues to rise, as I said it would, though next month it’s likely to see a pullback, yet it will not drop out of the zone… most likely, only to to the top of that cluster of TLs… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

Continue reading

Weekend Observations for 4.27.19

SPX – It was on 1.4.19, when I forecast that the SPX would be at new ATHs in months, not years (or ever), when most were calling for another drop akin to the 2009 event…

I was called crazy and many other things I cannot repeat here, but would you look at that… the SPX closed at a new ATH on a closing basis…

If really find it amusing now, that those same pundits are saying, as the SPX is pushing to new ATHs, that this is just the beginning… why weren’t they making these observations four months ago with me?!?!

This is the SPX daily chart as of today’s close… there’s a bit higher to go before a 5%-6% pullback, then another push to even higher ATHs in the fall… watching.

 

SPX-D-4-26-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.26.19

MARKET BREADTH – someone every trader should follow is Tom McClellan, son of Sherman McClellan, who created the McClellan Oscillator…

Without going into the maths, there are several versions of this oscillator that measures market participation (breadth), and based on present readings, this market has quite a bit of life left in it…

Here is an excerpt from Tom’s free weekly newsletter:

The basic point which matters right now is that the ability of the RASI to climb up to a nice lofty value conveys an important message.  It says that liquidity is plentiful, and that is a condition which is likely to continue for a while longer.  A high RASI reading says that there is still more uptrend yet to come.  There might be an ordinary, garden-variety correction to help restore equilibrium, but we are not at the end point for the uptrend.

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.25.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day essentially unchanged from yesterday’s regular trading session close, though through the globex session, they’ve developed into a bullish flag formation up there at the top of the trading range…

I have business meetings for most of the morning today, but keep tabs on things via @investingcom mobile app, so if something out of the ordinary develops, I’ll make time to chime in…

The ST, IT, and LT trends are upward, and as of this post, my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.24.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day at about where they ended yesterday, though have been slightly above and below, yet never hitting the 2940 mark during globex…

2947 is the former SP00 ATH, and that may be reached today, as there are many companies set to release earnings reports today, a few before the open, though most after the close…

The ST, IT and LT trends remain upward, and my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.22.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the lows of the globex session, and have printed new session lows this hour…

There’s potential for another diamond formation in this range, and with most earnings reports coming in better than expected, I’d say a shallow-sideways correction is what we’ll see here, then a breakout upward… but as always, the momentum indicator signal line rules the day…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2908… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Weekend Observations for 4.21.19

SPX – This is the SPX weekly chart with my revised forecast through 2020…

And though the SPX will go to new ATHs later this year, this is a reminder that corrections take many forms…

The last larger correction was a simple A-B-C corrective flat (3-3-5) lasting from 2000-2009 – the SPX went higher in Wave-B versus its Wave-THREE high in 2000, though Wave-C ended up lower than Wave-A…

This corrective wave will be shorter in duration – 2018-2020, and not a simple flat, but a double zig-zag [a-b-(w)-(x)-(y)] -(3-3-3-3-3), and the low of the correction is already in…

 

Continue reading

Weekend Observations for 4.19-20.19

Here’s the daily SPX since the 2016 lows, and projecting out to later this year with the wave-(x):(iv) high, up in the ~3290 range…

Note how the last DTL on the momentum indicator line was broken to the upside last week…

Once this corrective phase completes next week, new ATHs will follow, and then a push upward to the top channel line UTL, which should also be in the ~3040 range…

Once there, a pullback to complete wave-b:(x):(iv), down to the ~2870 range, then a new push to yet new ATHs to the ~3290 range in late fall… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.18.19

SP00s (4.17.19 evening) – Here’s how the 60-min SP00s chart ended the day…

Note how much earlier it generated the reversal signal – at the 8:00 am bar, versus the 10:00 am bar for the 240-min SP00s chart…

I suspect the momentum indicator line will work its way down to the zero support level to reset, so price can then move back upward to new ATHs… watching.

 

 

Continue reading