Weekend Observations for 4.6.19

SPX BULL MARKET CONTINUES – this is a bit of a detailed update to one of my specialty charts that filters bull market conditions from bear market conditions…

In my SPX forecast made on 4.9.16, I called for the SPX to remain in a bull market through 2021, so was a bit surprised with the relative weakness in US equities in November and December of 2018…

Of all the economies in the world, the US economy is one of the strongest and most resilient, so rather than denying what was happening for all the world to see, I had to dig deeper for understanding…

 

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Market Comments 4.5.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day at new swing highs… a new swing high was achieved earlier in the globex session, at about 2:00 am, so it seemed fairly certain to me that the employment numbers release a few minutes ago would be enough to push the SP00s back higher…

My price target above is the ~2900 range, then the ~2940s….

My SAR swing system remains long from 2818… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 4.3.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the top of the range of gains made over night in the globex session…

From a price perspective, they are in the resistance zone that is from about ~2880 to ~2900…

From a momentum perspective, the momentum indicator line on the 240-min SP00s chart has just poked above its last DTL… If it can close above it, the door is open for more gains…

 

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Market Comments for 4.2.19

BITCOIN (from midnight last night) – as soon as I read this article earlier this afternoon, I knew it would become the fuel for a helluva rally…

I’ll look at BTC more closely tomorrow, though have been on record for weeks that Wave-A was probably complete, and Wave-B was in progress…

However, my LT outlook remains the same… crypto remains in a LT bear market; be careful about getting too much hope in this quick short-covering move…

 

 

 

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Weekend Observations for 3.31.19

MARKET BREADTH – next to the market’s momentum trend, I look to overall market participation, or the lack thereof, to determine the strength of the trend…

Simply put, breadth leads price… in the beginning of a new move, after exhaustion was reached in the opposite direction, pretty much everything participates…

As the move/trend ages, the playing field thins out (breadth) and that is visually measured with a chart like the cumulative advance/decline line on the NYSE…

Here are the 1-year and 5-year daily charts of the Cumulative $NYAD, showing excellent overall market participation…

 

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Weekend Observations for 3.30.19

Here’s another view of the SPX daily with my forecast, since the deep drop in December changed it to a longer wave-(iv)…

This is a normally bullish seasonality into May, then a pullback or sideways, and then another push upward into July/August is also possible…

My two upward targets since the December lows have been ~3040 and ~3290… the Andrews Fork I added helps illustrate the targets with this time frames, though the market will do as it wills… and as always, momentum rules market movement… watching.

 

SPX-D-3-29-19-1.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

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Market Comments for 3.29.19

MOMENTUM RESETS – here’s the SP00s daily chart dating back to the Wave-IV lows of 2009…

Note how low the momentum indicator line dropped all four times a reset was needed to push prices upward to the next trading range…

Last evening I said it appeared wave-b:(x):(iv) completed, and price would push up from there… so far, so good…

What I’m wanting to see to confirm is new swing highs in price and the momentum indicator line pushing upward through the next higher DTL….watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

 

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Market Comments for 3.28.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day close to where they ended, though early in the globex session over night, they nearly revisited the lows from yesterday’s regular trading session…

At this time, even though there has been considerable price volatility on a daily basis, price is showing compression… and while it may not breakout today, it will soon enough, and the flat bottom is typically the side to which it will break…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2829… watching.

 

 

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