Back on 5.21.19, I read an article exploring how long would it take to become a millionaire via the stock market…
The answer was relative to many factors, including:
Hi all,
I’ve been away from the blog for about 60-days now, due to being too damned busy to include it into my daily routine. There were holidays, graduations, my kiddos coming from around the US to visit (I still have seven kiddos who live with me), the busy season in the environmental services industry (I estimate, sell and manage about $1M per year in asbestos abatement, lead-based paint abatement and mold remediation services).
That said, I hope to catch-up on posting the daily postings I put on Instagram over the next week or so, but want to start off with this short article on the SPX, as I think it’s approaching a temporary top:
With the SPX approaching an intermediate target I’ve had on my radar for a long time, I thought to show how this has played out since 1.4.19, when I first forecast the SPX to recover to new ATHs within months, rather than the years (if at all) that many were looking for in our community…
SPX – A couple days ago, I featured these daily SP00s charts with a fast and slow setting on the momentum indicator lines, saying they were both vulnerable to dropping through their respective UTLs…
They did, and yesterday recovered most of the price loss, though their momentum indicator lines created new pivots for their respective UTLs…
It seems likely at this point that these new UTLs will mark, that is, the breaking of these new UTLs, will mark the end of the price rise I’m looking for on this leg of the journey for the SP00s…
The price high I’m looking for next week is up in the ~3040 range, though the momentum indicator line won’t confirm that until after the fact, and that’s assuming the price can even rise that high… watching.
Link to larger chart: Link
SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day with a potential fresh wind in their sails…
At the 6:00 pm MST bar on the 240-min SP00s chart, the momentum indicator signal line closed above its DTL, and reversed back to long on that bar at 2918… watching.
SP00s – the SP00s start the day just below yesterday’s regular trading session close, though did attempt to rally overnight…
Just below the present price is the approximate 20-DMA line, which should act as a price support here, and the momentum indicator line is also nearing the top of the gray zone support level which should also provide support, if not a bounce…
This is merely a needed correction to work the overdone momentum indicator line, and should recover in the near future…
My SAR swing system remains short from 2944… watching.
SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the top of the globex range, which is after a successful back test of the DTL off the former ATHs in yesterday’s regular trading session…
At noon MST the FOMC meeting ends, then an announcement on rates, then the release of the minutes… there is likely to be a spike in volatility at that time, then if my fractal interpretation is correct, the SP00s will break higher again, moving towards that ~3040 target range…
The ST, IT and LT trends are upward, and my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.
SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day with slight gains, though off the highs of yesterday…
Today is the beginning of the FOMC meeting that will conclude on Wednesday, so we may see a stall in this range, then a spike in volatility Wednesday, with a breakout one direction or the other – me thinks it will me be upward, with that last target of ~3040 in its sights…
For now, the ST trend remains upward – note I moved the UTL to give the SP00s a little more room to work (that’s always subject to market conditions)- my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.
SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day just a bit in the red… when I posted six hours ago, I said IF they could hold their gains, then the SPX could gap across its previous ATH, but it appears that will not be the case today…
What’s most typical is for a consolidation to take place, to build the necessary thrust to push through… I was speaking last night with the information I had at the time…
Forecasting and trading is much like performing improv on a stage… you may have a general idea of the direction you’re going at the start, but then new information is added, and you IMPROVISE to that new information, or you die the death of the stubborn market participant…
FLUID is how the markets are, so fluid is what you must become, ever ADAPTING to what the markets are, or off the stage you’ll go in humiliation…
The ST, IT and LT trends are up, and at the time of this post, my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.
SPX – This chart is one I developed many years ago – it’s the weekly SPX with my bull/bear filter on it…
I made the case yesterday that statistically, the financial markets spend 2-3 times as long in a bullish trend, as they do in a bearish trend…
This chart shows about the past 20-years of the SPX… notice how much of that time the momentum indicator line is spent up in the gray bubble zone…
The momentum indicator line continues to rise, as I said it would, though next month it’s likely to see a pullback, yet it will not drop out of the zone… most likely, only to to the top of that cluster of TLs… watching.
Link to larger chart: Link
SPX – It was on 1.4.19, when I forecast that the SPX would be at new ATHs in months, not years (or ever), when most were calling for another drop akin to the 2009 event…
I was called crazy and many other things I cannot repeat here, but would you look at that… the SPX closed at a new ATH on a closing basis…
If really find it amusing now, that those same pundits are saying, as the SPX is pushing to new ATHs, that this is just the beginning… why weren’t they making these observations four months ago with me?!?!
This is the SPX daily chart as of today’s close… there’s a bit higher to go before a 5%-6% pullback, then another push to even higher ATHs in the fall… watching.
Link to larger chart: Link