1998 VS 2018

Below is the weekly SPX with my alternate fractal count… I created an alternate count yesterday because the market seems to be saying the correction is going to be longer in duration than the .776 Fibonacci time relationship to wave-a:iv that I thought was possible – when the market speaks, I try to listen…

LInk to larger chart:  Link 



In light of this change, there are some definite similarities and differences between this period and the 1997-2000 period in US equities I want to point out: in the former era, the US equity markets continued moving higher IN SPITE of the issues of that time…

There was the Asian Contagion in 1997… then in 1998 there was the Russian Ruble Devaluation…

And despite these issues and serious market corrections at that time, the US equity markets rallied back upward to post new ATHs…

Today’s climate has definitely changed – it’s now in a different economic cycle… and the reason the US equity markets will continue climbing to new ATHs is not in spite of the issues, but BECAUSE of the issues…

Brexit, the fallout of the European refugee crisis, $3T Eurozone QE failure, exposure to emerging markets = bear markets across Europe, bear markets across Asia, gold continuing its LT bear market, and rising rates (LT bear market in bonds just starting) – all these will cause capital to flow to where there’s still an ROI to be found – the US dollar and US equities…

Note on the chart the two blue arrows on the momentum indicator line – I suggest we are in similar positions with regard to momentum…

Note also that if this fractal interpretation is correct, that wave-c:iv will be equal in time to wave-a:iv in the early part of January 2019, then wave-v:5:V will push the SPX back upward to new ATHs – the ~3,600 range or the ~5,100 range over the next 18-24 months…

And I suggest we will see a similar pattern now as we saw then, a choppy ending diagonal triangle pattern that will be very difficult to understand and even more difficult to trade profitably…

I can help you be profitable during this ending phase of this great US bull market, and even profit during the next great bear market phase!

Email me or respond to this article for details!

Two Paths, Same Outcome

I mentioned in my last IG post that I am looking at another alternate fractal count that is essentially the same theme I’ve been pushing since early October, though wave-c:iv is equal in time to the wave-a:iv, so continues out until January 2019…

In this scenario, wave-c:c:iv ended today, or Monday,  and then the SP00s rally upward in wave-d:c:iv in a Christmas rally; after the new year, they would pull back in wave-e:c:iv to the ~2700 range…

If this plays out, the wave-iv correction will have lasted about one year (1.22.18 – 1.8.19 ?), then wave-v:5:V commences to take the SP00s upward for 18-24 months to the ~3600 or ~5100 range…

Link to larger chart:  Link 

IF the SP00s completed wave-e:c:iv today: the SPX closed exactly at critical support – 2600…

The SP00s closed the regular session also above the 2600 level, but then discounted the close in the globex session, bringing the close down to the 2596.75 level…

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is SP00-240-12-14-18-1.jpg
Link to larger chart:  Link 


Link to larger chart:  Link 


IF today’s close was the completion of wave-e:c:iv, the SP00s will start moving upward in Sunday’s globex…

The 60-min chart shows positive divergence of momentum against price on the last leg down, and the 300-min chart also shows positive divergence of momentum against price going back to the third week of November…


Link to larger chart:  Link  

Link to larger chart:  Link 

My SAR Momentum Swing System remains short from 2660.,, watching.

US vs Asia vs Europe

Yesterday I showed how Europe, using the DAX as a proxy, is in a bear market, with the DAX closing down last Friday -21% YTD from its ATH earlier in the year *AND* the momentum indicator line falling through its UTL…


Link to larger chart:  Link 

I also showed how Asia, using the Shanghai Composite as a proxy, is in a bear market with the Shanghai Composite closing down last Friday -28% YTD from the January high, it’s down 50% YTD from the 2015 bear market wave-b pivot high, and it’s down 58% YTD from the 2007 ATHs *AND* the momentum indicator line falling through its UTL…

Link to larger chart:  Link 

For months now, I’ve been trying to make the case that a confluence of events are creating the perfect storm for US equities and the US dollar…

Gold, which is often a safe-haven play, continues in a long-term downtrend…

Link to lager chart:  Link 

Bonds, which are also another traditional safe-haven play, have also just reversed into a bear market, and interest rates will be moving higher…

While there has been some recent buying in bonds as a wave-c:ii is playing out, it’s also very evident that the long-term trend has changed – going back to 1988 – on both the price DTL and the momentum indicator line DTL…

Please remember that with bonds, price and yield are inverse, so a long term bear market beginning in US bonds means interest rates will be moving steadily higher…

It’s also a myth that the equity markets cannot move higher as interest rates move higher – within reason…

Link to larger chart:  Link 

The chart below is the SPX weekly as of Friday’s close, and while it’s 1.5% below its close from 2017, it’s still in a bull market, as per the momentum indicator line remaining above its UTL…

So in this cycle, rather than the normal safe-haven plays being what attract global capital, it will be the US equity markets and the US dollar that will become the recipient of global capital flows, as they migrate here seeking ROI, because bear markets about pretty much everywhere else…

My work suggests wave-iv will be complete by the end of this week, or early the following week at the ~2700 range, then the SPX will move back upward again in wave-v:5:V to the ~3600 range or the ~5100 range… watching.

Link to larger chart:  Link 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

Bitcoin Target of ~3500 Hit

For weeks I’ve been updating the progress of wave-c:c:A in BTC, looking for a low of ~3500, then a bounce in wave-d:c:A, and a final drop in wave-e:c:A to the ~3000 range.

BTC hit my target today, and while it could run past it a bit (and has as of this update), a former price pivot, and the lower channel DTL should provide support.

While BTC could move back upward to the upper channel line DTL, I am only looking for it to move the the middle channel DTL in wave-d, then a final drop to the ~3000 range to complete Wave-A, which is only the first segment of BTC’s bear market.

Eventually, over the next 10-20 years, I see BTC dropping below 1000, and if it even survives, the next leg of a new bull market can begin… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

Natural Gas “Rogue Wave” Bullshit

 

I listened in dismay this morning (12-1-18) as a weekend financial talk show host told the story about a hedge fund manager – James Cordier – delivering his “apology” on YouTube fore losing ALL his client’s money – some $150,000,000.00 – in what he called a “rogue wave” in the natural gas market…

Here are some excerpts from what I read:

  • “Accounts belonging to Optionsellers.com, which specializes in writing commodities options for high net-worth investors, have been liquidated, INTL FCStone Inc., the brokerage that cleared the firm’s trades, said Monday in a statement to Bloomberg.
  • “The losses from the failure of the fund could exceed US$150 million, according to Jason T. Albin, a lawyer at ChapmanAlbin LLC, who said he’s been contacted by at least 60 clients of OptionSellers. “Everybody’s account was wiped out,” he said in a telephone interview.
  • “Moreover, he said, FCStone borrowed on margin against the accounts to cover money-losing positions. In the end, the clients didn’t just lose all their money, they also now owe FCStone for the loans, he said.
  • ““I am so sorry for not managing our ship and keeping her afloat,” Cordier says finally.”

 

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SPX Bullish in Four Time Frames

The utter ELEGANCE of a robust and sensitive swing system…

This is the first of the charts I’m presenting in this article, and I’m starting with the SP00s 300-min chart with my SAR signals as a proxy for the SPX.

Notice it only has four triggers since January, and notice also how much of each swing the signal caught.

Notice also that the momentum indicator line has dropped to its lowest readings since the 2016 lows, and low enough to mark a major low and the reset needed to push the SP00s back upward to new ATHs and then to breakout to a new higher trading range…

 

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

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Bitcoin – One of the Greatest Asset Bubbles of All Time

Since I started covering BTC, I’ve been warning that it was an asset that became a bubble, and as all assets that go parabolic in price, they crash and remain in a prolonged bear market for some 10-20 years – and I was looking for the first leg down to be between $4K-$6K, which is now adjusted to about $3K.

Bloomberg Business @bloombergbusiness  posted an infographic this week depicting just how big the BTC bubble was relative to other bubbles in history:

  • The Mississippi Bubble – 1718-1720
  • The Tulip Mania Bubble – 1636-1637
  • The South Sea Bubble – 1711-1720
  • The Dot Com Bubble – 1990-2000

 

 

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Crude Oil – IT High Complete

Since July I’ve been looking for crude oil prices to top, and in October they finally did…

This is a post I originally made last weekend on Instagram, but have updated with new material at the end of the post…

CRUDE OIL – have you ever had a nagging thought in the back of your head that was telling you to re-examine something you thought to be true?

Such was the case for me with crude oil prices today… the long-term historical price data is relatively short, going only back to the early 80s, so I assumed the 2008 peak was a Wave-III…

 

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Potential Timing For Correction’s End

In my previous article about wave-c:iv seeking proportionality with wave-a:iv, I offered my fractal interpretation for the SPX, Dow and NDX, with each of them in the midst of an ending diagonal triangle.

However what I did not do in that article, is offer any specifics in time for the end of wave-c:iv, except in late December.

In this article, I want to see if a time can be determined using Fibonacci relationships between wave-a:iv and wave-c:iv.

 

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