Updated Fractal Count for the SPX Going into Year’s End 2019

AN EPIPHANY MOMENT… (from this morning’s IG post)

I used to be a fairly regular contributor at on a trader’s forum, but as more demands on my time have come, I’ve also had to be more selective in where I give my time, so haven’t contributed there for quite a while, until last Friday….

(Unfortunately, I’ve even had to reduce the number of posts here, as my time has become so much more limited.)

The topic was Elliott Wave, and how frustrating it was to see the hundreds and thousands of interpretations… and I absolutely agree, and that was why I changed to fractal theory, as EW has kind of become a negative term in the technical analysis community…

I shared only one chart, and made the comment that my fractal count really hasn’t changed significantly since my 4.9.16 forecast – then it hit me yesterday morning – if the December low marked a significant change in how much longer the bull market in the US equities markets will continue, then why is my fractal count off the WAVE-FOUR low still the same as before?


SPX-D-11-1-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 


The December low marked a major inflection point, and a shift in my understanding of bull market/bear market cycles, yet I continued to keep the same fractal count as before that change… perhaps I needed more time to grasp the significance of the shift, perhaps I was being resistant to change (that’s simple human nature), perhaps I was being proud… I don’t know, but yesterday, I spent a lot of time in reflection and meditation on this matter, and decided I needed to address this matter and adjust my fractal count to reflect a fresh bull market cycle that is still in its early stages with another ten years to go….

This is the SPX weekly chart with my revised fractal count, showing the January 2018 high as the completion of Wave-1:FIVE, with Wave-2:FIVE in work since…

When you realize you’re wrong. admit it, fix it, and move on – I was wrong, and there’s still so much more life left in this bull market, though there will be corrections along the way, the next major bear market (2000-2009) is not for another decade.


SPX-W-11-1-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

Wave-b:c:(x):(iv) Appears Complete

Link to larger chart:  Link 

Back on 8.6.19, after the wave-a:c:(x):(iv) had completed its move upward, just short of the ~3040 range I had forecast on 1.4.19, I commented on how quickly the price range for wave-b:c:(x):(iv) had been reached, and warned not to look to high too early, as the fractal did not have the correct symmetry, and there was probably another leg down to the ~2850 range still ahead:  Link


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Two Arguments for Intermediate-term Low

Arguement One:

PRICE VERSUS TIME – when the SPX hit my price objective for the second time with a higher low AND the momentum indicator line was giving a reversal signal to the long side (8.15.19), I mentioned that it seemed a bit early and warned that though the price objective had been reached, if the time objective has not,, we could be looking too high too soon, when instead, price may linger in the range in an ending diagonal triangle scenario…


SP00s CIT on 8.15.19


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Second Target Hit Early

It was no surprise that the SPX began declining after hitting my 1.4.19 target last week, though what was surprising is the velocity at which it moved to reach my next target…

Below is the forecast I made on 7.26.19, showing my expectation for wave-b:c:(x):(iv) to move downward to the ~2850 range…


SPX-D-7-26-19-2.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link


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Nailed the IT Top!

I recently warned that the SPX, via the SP00s was near an intermediate: Link

The Fed’s decision to cut the prime lending rate by only 1/4-point, and not see additional rate cuts this year, AND the President’s adding additional tariffs to China’s imports, was enough to send the US equities markets into a sell-off, which will mark an IT top, probably until September or so.

Here’s the daily SPX chart with the forecast for this top that I published on 1.4.9:


SPX-D-1-4-19-1-1.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 


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Intermediate-Term (IT) Target Nearing

On 1.4.19, I published a forecast calling for the SPX to recover from the hard correction of December 2018 to new ATHs in months, rather than years, or if at all, that many in this community were calling for, and now the SPX is to within one half of one percent of the forecast I made that day…


Link to larger chart:  Link


SPX Daily chart as of 7.26.19:

Link to larger chart:  Link


Though the thing is, this top does not end the bull market run for this year, it simply marks an intermediate-term (IT) top, though the long-term trend remains in tact, and the SPX will continue making new ATHs into year’s end.



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SAR Momentum Trend Swing System Update

From Friday’s (7.19.19) closing remarks:

SP00s – the SP00s end the day closing strongly lower, the reason cited is possible military tensions over Iran (seizing a British oil tanker)…

I mentioned at the 10:00 am update, that though the momentum indicator line had hooked downward on the 240-min SP00s chart at the zero resistance level and where there was also a latent UTL, that that alone was not enough for a reversal (it’s rather typical), but in watching the momentum indicator line on the 60-min chart, it just kept dropping lower and lower – creating lower and lower hooks – and finally it broke another UTL on the momentum indicator line AND the zero support level AND a UTL on the price bars, thus creating a reversal back to short at 2994…


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