Weekend Observations for 2.16.19

SPX – the SPX ended the week only 31-points short of the ~2808 forecast I made back on 1.18.19…

This is the SPX weekly chart with what I think will be the end of this swing, the drop of the next to the ~2640 range, and finally the rise back upward to new ATHs, to the ~3040 range…

Note also, if this plays out, there is a huge RH&S formation, that actually targets a bit higher (~3250), but we’ll worry about that, when we get there…

 

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Market Comments for 2.15.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the point of my post late last night, that the SP00s had dropped to a lower-low in price and momentum, was that the fractal needed one more low to complete and the momentum line, by making another low, created another TL point…

“BOOM (12:30 am)… I just happened to be up for a moment at just the right time to catch new swing lows in price and momentum…:

With that said, the SP00s turned back upward and gave a reversal signal at the close of the 5:00 am bar, and are now back above the 200-DMA (~2746), though there’s overhead resistance with two DTLs directly above the momentum indicator line…

 

 

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Market Comments for 2.14.19

SP00s (Pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day with a modest gain from yesterday’s close, yet in a vulnerable position where they need to break upward again, or face the risk of breaking down…

The price bars show a slightly upward tilted diamond formation, which can be either a continuation or a termination point… we’ll likely find out today which it will be this time…

My SAR swing system remains long from 2716… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 2.13.19

SPX (2.12.19 night) – Here’s an update of the daily SPX that I posted on 1.31.19…

If the SP00s continue upward, as they are in the globex, the gap between my forecast and where the SP00s are could be less than 50-points by tomorrow’s open…

The way I see this phase of the fractal, this upward leg is in it’s final segment, either a wave-5:c:a:(x):(iv) or it’s a wave-e of the same…

Me thinks the ~2808 range – basis the SPX – which is also the .776 Fibonacci retrace level from the ATH to the wave-(w) low is where wave-a:(x):(iv) terminates… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

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Market Comments for 2.12.19

SP00s (pre-opening comment at 5:00 am) – too funny… I said last night, it looks like the SP00s need another leg down, BUT however it plays out…

I’ve seen my TA blown away before by an outside event that I didn’t see coming, though the momentum did…

In this case, a tentative US budget deal seems to be reached that includes some money for about 50-miles of wall or barrier – this turned sentiment decidedly bullish, and allowed for both the 60-min and 240-min charts to break upward through their respective DTLs together…

 

 

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Market Comments for 2.11.19

SP00s – I mentioned last Friday that the SP00s 60-min chart had given a reversal signal, but it did not also come on the 240-min chart…

With the choppy market conditions for the past couple of weeks, and the inability for the SP00s to even tag the 200-DMA, I’m wanting to see another challenge of the higher DTL as a possible signal of a continuation upward – and that hasn’t happened yet…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2729… watching.

 

 

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Weekend Observations for 2.10.19

TRAVELERS COMPANIES – TRV is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the last time I featured it was back in November, so here we go…

Wave-3 ended in an ending diagonal triangle, which I had thought was the end of wave-5, but upon further consideration, and my expectation for the bull market in US equities to extend beyond 2021, TRV would also need to continue upward, so here is my revised fractal interpretation…

 

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Market Comments for 2.8.19

SP00s (pre-market opening comments) –¬†¬†overnight in the globex session, SP00s continued back down towards yesterday’s low, though did not print a new low…

The 240-min momentum indicator line is coming into a cluster of latent TLs that may provide some support today, though I suspect price is moving towards another retest of the 50-DMA, which is at ~2614 today…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2729… watching.

 

 

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Market Comments for 2.7.19

SP00s (pre-opening remarks) – I mentioned yesterday that the 60-min SP00s were already in a reversal, though at the closing bell, the 240-min SP00s had not yet closed (1-hour into the bar) below the momentum indicator line UTL…

At the 5:00 pm bar the reversal signal back to short was given, and my SAR swing system is now short from 2729…

The 60-min momentum indicator line is coming into support from the gray zone and another UTL, and the ~2700 has been previous support, so we’ll likely see a pause in this range… watching.

 

 

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