SPX Nearing Year-end Target from 2.15.19

This article will combine three Instagram posts from Saturday, 11.30.19, into one.

ALWAYS START WITH THE TOP-DOWN VIEW…

I never stress too much over changing my fractal count on the 15-min and 240-min SP00s charts, because as new information is presented in real-time – the financial markets ARE dynamic, NOT static – the count can change to reflect that new information, as long as it’s within the scope of the larger, top-down picture…

 

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PI Doctors Elite Community – 11.10.19

Welcome to this presentation!

I’m Tim Sharp, a father of twelve beautiful kiddos, husband to an incredibly wonderful wifey and I’m presently still in the environmental services industry, where I sell and manage about $1M/year in environmental projects  – asbestos abatement, lead-based paint abatement and mold remediation… oh, and I also created the most robust, yet sensitive swing trading system for trading on the SP500 available today.

This presentation is for you if:

  • You are very teachable…
  • You understand the concept of risk and risk management…
  • Your investment portfolio is under-performing – the average rate of return on the SP500, since its inception in 1923 is about 12.25%, the average mutual fund rate of return is about 8-10%…
  • You have student debt or professional debt you would like to see retired more quickly…
  • You want to retire from the medical profession earlier and begin your “Second Act” (Stephen Pollan)…
  • You have enough discretionary capital to participate, and it’s not “scared” money…
  • You have no problem with paying a small fraction of your success to achieve success…

Link to audio presentation from 11.10.19, it’s about 30-min long:  Audio 

 

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Updated Fractal Count for the SPX Going into Year’s End 2019

AN EPIPHANY MOMENT… (from this morning’s IG post)

I used to be a fairly regular contributor at on a trader’s forum, but as more demands on my time have come, I’ve also had to be more selective in where I give my time, so haven’t contributed there for quite a while, until last Friday….

(Unfortunately, I’ve even had to reduce the number of posts here, as my time has become so much more limited.)

The topic was Elliott Wave, and how frustrating it was to see the hundreds and thousands of interpretations… and I absolutely agree, and that was why I changed to fractal theory, as EW has kind of become a negative term in the technical analysis community…

I shared only one chart, and made the comment that my fractal count really hasn’t changed significantly since my 4.9.16 forecast – then it hit me yesterday morning – if the December low marked a significant change in how much longer the bull market in the US equities markets will continue, then why is my fractal count off the WAVE-FOUR low still the same as before?

 

SPX-D-11-1-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

The December low marked a major inflection point, and a shift in my understanding of bull market/bear market cycles, yet I continued to keep the same fractal count as before that change… perhaps I needed more time to grasp the significance of the shift, perhaps I was being resistant to change (that’s simple human nature), perhaps I was being proud… I don’t know, but yesterday, I spent a lot of time in reflection and meditation on this matter, and decided I needed to address this matter and adjust my fractal count to reflect a fresh bull market cycle that is still in its early stages with another ten years to go….

This is the SPX weekly chart with my revised fractal count, showing the January 2018 high as the completion of Wave-1:FIVE, with Wave-2:FIVE in work since…

When you realize you’re wrong. admit it, fix it, and move on – I was wrong, and there’s still so much more life left in this bull market, though there will be corrections along the way, the next major bear market (2000-2009) is not for another decade.

 

SPX-W-11-1-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

Wave-b:c:(x):(iv) Appears Complete

Link to larger chart:  Link 

Back on 8.6.19, after the wave-a:c:(x):(iv) had completed its move upward, just short of the ~3040 range I had forecast on 1.4.19, I commented on how quickly the price range for wave-b:c:(x):(iv) had been reached, and warned not to look to high too early, as the fractal did not have the correct symmetry, and there was probably another leg down to the ~2850 range still ahead:  Link

 

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Two Arguments for Intermediate-term Low

Arguement One:

PRICE VERSUS TIME – when the SPX hit my price objective for the second time with a higher low AND the momentum indicator line was giving a reversal signal to the long side (8.15.19), I mentioned that it seemed a bit early and warned that though the price objective had been reached, if the time objective has not,, we could be looking too high too soon, when instead, price may linger in the range in an ending diagonal triangle scenario…

 

SP00s CIT on 8.15.19

 

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Second Target Hit Early

It was no surprise that the SPX began declining after hitting my 1.4.19 target last week, though what was surprising is the velocity at which it moved to reach my next target…

Below is the forecast I made on 7.26.19, showing my expectation for wave-b:c:(x):(iv) to move downward to the ~2850 range…

 

SPX-D-7-26-19-2.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link

 

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Nailed the IT Top!

I recently warned that the SPX, via the SP00s was near an intermediate: Link

The Fed’s decision to cut the prime lending rate by only 1/4-point, and not see additional rate cuts this year, AND the President’s adding additional tariffs to China’s imports, was enough to send the US equities markets into a sell-off, which will mark an IT top, probably until September or so.

Here’s the daily SPX chart with the forecast for this top that I published on 1.4.9:

 

SPX-D-1-4-19-1-1.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

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