Weekend Observations for 5.4.19

SPX – A couple days ago, I featured these daily SP00s charts with a fast and slow setting on the momentum indicator lines, saying they were both vulnerable to dropping through their respective UTLs…

They did, and yesterday recovered most of the price loss, though their momentum indicator lines created new pivots for their respective UTLs…

It seems likely at this point that these new UTLs will mark, that is, the breaking of these new UTLs, will mark the end of the price rise I’m looking for on this leg of the journey for the SP00s…

The price high I’m looking for next week is up in the ~3040 range, though the momentum indicator line won’t confirm that until after the fact, and that’s assuming the price can even rise that high… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

Continue reading

Market Observations for 5.3.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day with a potential fresh wind in their sails…

  • the momentum indicator line dropped down to the reset range – the top of the gray zone support level – that I had been looking for for a couple weeks…
  • the price bars dropped down to test support of the ~20-DMA support level…
  • and last, but not least, this morning’s employment number were way higher than consensus (236K vs 181K), and the nation’s unemployment rate has dropped down to 3.6% – the US economy is doing GRRRRRRREAT….

At the 6:00 pm MST bar on the 240-min SP00s chart, the momentum indicator signal line closed above its DTL, and reversed back to long on that bar at 2918… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Observations for 5.2.19

SP00s – the SP00s start the day just below yesterday’s regular trading session close, though did attempt to rally overnight…

Just below the present price is the approximate 20-DMA line, which should act as a price support here, and the momentum indicator line is also nearing the top of the gray zone support level which should also provide support, if not a bounce…

This is merely a needed correction to work the overdone momentum indicator line, and should recover in the near future…

My SAR swing system remains short from 2944… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Observations for 5.1.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day near the top of the globex range, which is after a successful back test of the DTL off the former ATHs in yesterday’s regular trading session…

At noon MST the FOMC meeting ends, then an announcement on rates, then the release of the minutes… there is likely to be a spike in volatility at that time, then if my fractal interpretation is correct, the SP00s will break higher again, moving towards that ~3040 target range…

The ST, IT and LT trends are upward, and my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Observations for 4.30.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day with slight gains, though off the highs of yesterday…

Today is the beginning of the FOMC meeting that will conclude on Wednesday, so we may see a stall in this range, then a spike in volatility Wednesday, with a breakout one direction or the other – me thinks it will me be upward, with that last target of ~3040 in its sights…

For now, the ST trend remains upward – note I moved the UTL to give the SP00s a little more room to work (that’s always subject to market conditions)- my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Market Observations for 4.29.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day just a bit in the red… when I posted six hours ago, I said IF they could hold their gains, then the SPX could gap across its previous ATH, but it appears that will not be the case today…

What’s most typical is for a consolidation to take place, to build the necessary thrust to push through… I was speaking last night with the information I had at the time…

Forecasting and trading is much like performing improv on a stage… you may have a general idea of the direction you’re going at the start, but then new information is added, and you IMPROVISE to that new information, or you die the death of the stubborn market participant…

FLUID is how the markets are, so fluid is what you must become, ever ADAPTING to what the markets are, or off the stage you’ll go in humiliation…

The ST, IT and LT trends are up, and at the time of this post, my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

Continue reading

Weekend Observations for 4.28.19

SPX – This chart is one I developed many years ago – it’s the weekly SPX with my bull/bear filter on it…

I made the case yesterday that statistically, the financial markets spend 2-3 times as long in a bullish trend, as they do in a bearish trend…

This chart shows about the past 20-years of the SPX… notice how much of that time the momentum indicator line is spent up in the gray bubble zone…

The momentum indicator line continues to rise, as I said it would, though next month it’s likely to see a pullback, yet it will not drop out of the zone… most likely, only to to the top of that cluster of TLs… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

Continue reading

Weekend Observations for 4.27.19

SPX – It was on 1.4.19, when I forecast that the SPX would be at new ATHs in months, not years (or ever), when most were calling for another drop akin to the 2009 event…

I was called crazy and many other things I cannot repeat here, but would you look at that… the SPX closed at a new ATH on a closing basis…

If really find it amusing now, that those same pundits are saying, as the SPX is pushing to new ATHs, that this is just the beginning… why weren’t they making these observations four months ago with me?!?!

This is the SPX daily chart as of today’s close… there’s a bit higher to go before a 5%-6% pullback, then another push to even higher ATHs in the fall… watching.

 

SPX-D-4-26-19.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.26.19

MARKET BREADTH – someone every trader should follow is Tom McClellan, son of Sherman McClellan, who created the McClellan Oscillator…

Without going into the maths, there are several versions of this oscillator that measures market participation (breadth), and based on present readings, this market has quite a bit of life left in it…

Here is an excerpt from Tom’s free weekly newsletter:

The basic point which matters right now is that the ability of the RASI to climb up to a nice lofty value conveys an important message.  It says that liquidity is plentiful, and that is a condition which is likely to continue for a while longer.  A high RASI reading says that there is still more uptrend yet to come.  There might be an ordinary, garden-variety correction to help restore equilibrium, but we are not at the end point for the uptrend.

 

Continue reading

Market Comments for 4.25.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day essentially unchanged from yesterday’s regular trading session close, though through the globex session, they’ve developed into a bullish flag formation up there at the top of the trading range…

I have business meetings for most of the morning today, but keep tabs on things via @investingcom mobile app, so if something out of the ordinary develops, I’ll make time to chime in…

The ST, IT, and LT trends are upward, and as of this post, my SAR swing system remains long from 2910… watching.

 

 

Continue reading