Nailed the IT Top!

I recently warned that the SPX, via the SP00s was near an intermediate: Link

The Fed’s decision to cut the prime lending rate by only 1/4-point, and not see additional rate cuts this year, AND the President’s adding additional tariffs to China’s imports, was enough to send the US equities markets into a sell-off, which will mark an IT top, probably until September or so.

Here’s the daily SPX chart with the forecast for this top that I published on 1.4.9:

 

SPX-D-1-4-19-1-1.jpgLink to larger chart:  Link 

 

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Intermediate-Term (IT) Target Nearing

On 1.4.19, I published a forecast calling for the SPX to recover from the hard correction of December 2018 to new ATHs in months, rather than years, or if at all, that many in this community were calling for, and now the SPX is to within one half of one percent of the forecast I made that day…

 

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

SPX Daily chart as of 7.26.19:

Link to larger chart:  Link

 

Though the thing is, this top does not end the bull market run for this year, it simply marks an intermediate-term (IT) top, though the long-term trend remains in tact, and the SPX will continue making new ATHs into year’s end.

 

 

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SAR Momentum Trend Swing System Update

From Friday’s (7.19.19) closing remarks:

SP00s – the SP00s end the day closing strongly lower, the reason cited is possible military tensions over Iran (seizing a British oil tanker)…

I mentioned at the 10:00 am update, that though the momentum indicator line had hooked downward on the 240-min SP00s chart at the zero resistance level and where there was also a latent UTL, that that alone was not enough for a reversal (it’s rather typical), but in watching the momentum indicator line on the 60-min chart, it just kept dropping lower and lower – creating lower and lower hooks – and finally it broke another UTL on the momentum indicator line AND the zero support level AND a UTL on the price bars, thus creating a reversal back to short at 2994…

 

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How Long to Make a Million Dollars in the Stock Market?

Back on 5.21.19, I read an article exploring how long would it take to become a millionaire via the stock market…

 

 

The answer was relative to many factors, including:

  • when did you initially get in…
  • did you get scared and sell at the bottom of corrections…
  • did you finally only get back into the market late in the rally phase…
  • etc, etc, etc….

 

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SPX Approaching Temporary Top…

Hi all,

I’ve been away from the blog for about 60-days now, due to being too damned busy to include it into my daily routine.  There were holidays, graduations, my kiddos coming from around the US to visit (I still have seven kiddos who live with me), the busy season in the environmental services industry (I estimate, sell and manage about $1M per year in asbestos abatement, lead-based paint abatement and mold remediation services).

That said, I hope to catch-up on posting the daily postings I put on Instagram over the next week or so, but want to start off with this short article on the SPX, as I think it’s approaching a temporary top:

With the SPX approaching an intermediate target I’ve had on my radar for a long time, I thought to show how this has played out since 1.4.19, when I first forecast the SPX to recover to new ATHs within months, rather than the years (if at all) that many were looking for in our community…

 

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Weekend Observations for 5.4.19

SPX – A couple days ago, I featured these daily SP00s charts with a fast and slow setting on the momentum indicator lines, saying they were both vulnerable to dropping through their respective UTLs…

They did, and yesterday recovered most of the price loss, though their momentum indicator lines created new pivots for their respective UTLs…

It seems likely at this point that these new UTLs will mark, that is, the breaking of these new UTLs, will mark the end of the price rise I’m looking for on this leg of the journey for the SP00s…

The price high I’m looking for next week is up in the ~3040 range, though the momentum indicator line won’t confirm that until after the fact, and that’s assuming the price can even rise that high… watching.

 

Link to larger chart:  Link 

 

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Market Observations for 5.3.19

SP00s (pre-opening comments) – the SP00s start the day with a potential fresh wind in their sails…

  • the momentum indicator line dropped down to the reset range – the top of the gray zone support level – that I had been looking for for a couple weeks…
  • the price bars dropped down to test support of the ~20-DMA support level…
  • and last, but not least, this morning’s employment number were way higher than consensus (236K vs 181K), and the nation’s unemployment rate has dropped down to 3.6% – the US economy is doing GRRRRRRREAT….

At the 6:00 pm MST bar on the 240-min SP00s chart, the momentum indicator signal line closed above its DTL, and reversed back to long on that bar at 2918… watching.

 

 

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